A distant war, an empty plate: How global oil disruptions threaten Malawi’s food Security

Introduction: A distant war, a local crisis

At first glance, the turmoil in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz might seem distant from the daily lives of people in Malawi. But this perception is misleading. What we are witnessing is not just an energy crisis; it marks the beginning of a serious disruption to the global food supply chain, driven by a simple yet devastating truth: no oil means no fertiliser, which ultimately translates to no food.

This isn’t just a theoretical problem; it’s a reality that is already unfolding. The vital shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy channels, are on the verge of collapse. The flow of oil, gas, and fertilisers has been disrupted, leading to steep increases in fertiliser prices, with some markets seeing hikes of 20-40%. If this disruption continues, we risk a significant decline in global food production, impacting millions of lives worldwide. For Malawi, a country heavily dependent on imported fuel, fertiliser, and rain-fed agriculture, this is not just a global crisis. It is a direct threat to national food security.

1. The hidden link: Oil and food are the same system

Modern agriculture heavily relies on fossil fuels, which impacts how we grow and distribute our food in two main ways:

1. Energy for production and transport: The machines we depend on, like tractors and irrigation pumps, run on fuel. From planting to harvesting and transporting everything to market, diesel powers the vehicles that move our agricultural inputs and outputs. This entire food distribution system requires significant energy, making it highly resource-intensive.

1. Fertiliser production: The fertilisers we use, especially nitrogen fertilisers such as urea and ammonia, are derived from fossil fuels, primarily natural gas. Additionally, sulfur, which is essential for these fertilisers, is often a byproduct of oil refining. This means that even the nutrients we put into our soil are tied to fossil fuel consumption.

Overall, the connection between agriculture and fossil fuels is deep and significant, shaping everything from farm operations to what ends up on our plates.

When oil and gas supplies are disrupted, it directly affects the production and availability of fertilisers. A key player in this process is the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway that handles about 20-25% of the world’s oil trade. Interestingly, around 30% of the global fertiliser trade also passes through this route, making it even more significant. The Gulf region is a major provider of urea and ammonia, both essential components for fertilisers. So, when this vital corridor faces blockages, the effects ripple through the system in a profound way; it’s not just a simple issue; it’s a complex, interconnected situation.

2. What is happening now: A global input shock

The current crisis has brought about three major disruptions that are affecting many aspects of life:

• Energy Shock: We’re facing significant constraints on oil and gas supplies, which is causing fuel prices to rise around the globe. As a result, transport and logistics costs are also increasing, impacting everything from goods to services.

• Fertiliser Shock: The disruptions in fertiliser shipments have been severe, leading to a sharp increase in global prices. For countries that rely on imports, the uncertainty surrounding fertiliser availability has become a pressing issue. Some experts caution that the shortages of fertiliser pose a more immediate threat to developing nations than the rising fuel costs.

• Agricultural Production Shock: In response to these changes, farmers are making tough decisions. Many are reducing their use of fertiliser, switching to low-input crops, or even cutting back on planting altogether. These actions lead to lower crop yields and reduced agricultural output, which can trigger future food shortages. Analysts are increasingly labelling this situation as a “slow-moving food crisis,” highlighting the potential long-term impacts on food security.

3. Why Malawi is particularly vulnerable

Malawi finds itself in a particularly vulnerable position within the global supply chain.

• High Dependence on Imported Inputs: The country relies heavily on imports for vital resources like fuel, fertiliser, and agricultural chemicals. Any interruption in global supply can lead to significant shortages, rising prices, and delays in obtaining these essential inputs, severely impacting agricultural productivity.

• Fertiliser-Dependent Maize System: The agricultural system in Malawi is deeply rooted in maize production, which relies heavily on fertilisers and is supported by political efforts to ensure food security. This dependence creates a structural weakness; when fertilisers are scarce or costly, it puts the entire maize production system at risk, jeopardising food availability.

• Limited Fiscal Space: The government faces significant challenges in responding to these agricultural needs, hampered by a lack of foreign exchange, high import bills, and limited financial reserves. This situation makes fertiliser subsidies increasingly costly, complicates procurement efforts, and weakens the government’s ability to intervene effectively during crises.

• Timing Risk: Agriculture in Malawi is season-specific. If there are delays in obtaining affordable or available fertiliser during crucial planting periods, the consequences can be devastating and irreversible for entire growing seasons.

4. Real-world signals: The crisis is already visible

The global agricultural system is currently facing serious challenges that are already impacting farmers and food production worldwide. A striking example is the recent spike in nitrogen fertiliser prices, which have jumped more than 35% in some areas, with urea being particularly affected. On top of that, shipping disruptions are making matters worse, with traffic through major routes like the Strait dropping by over 90%. Fertiliser exports from Gulf countries are also experiencing significant hurdles.

In light of these rising costs and supply chain issues, farmers everywhere are having to rethink their approaches. Many are cutting back on fertiliser use, changing the crops they grow, or even reducing the amount of land they cultivate. There are growing warnings from organisations like the FAO about the possibility of fertiliser prices continuing to climb by 15–20%, and UN agencies are highlighting heightened threats to food security, especially in vulnerable regions such as Africa and Asia. The situation is indeed concerning and calls for urgent attention.

5. What this means for Malawi: A chain reaction

The situation in Malawi is complex, and while the effects may not be felt right away, they are on the horizon if the current crisis continues. It begins with an input shock: as fertiliser becomes harder to find or too expensive, and as fuel shortages disrupt distribution, farmers face a tough start.

Next comes the production shock. With less fertiliser available, farmers are unable to produce as much, resulting in smaller yields. This, in turn, triggers a supply shock: as national maize output declines, food availability becomes increasingly limited.

As supply tightens, we enter the price shock phase. With less maize available, prices begin to rise, contributing to overall inflation. This is not just an economic issue; it carries significant social implications. More people face food insecurity, their vulnerability increases, and the pressure on the government to respond grows.

This sequence, often referred to as the food security transmission mechanism, illustrates the cascading effects that can stem from disruptions in the agricultural sector, impacting lives and communities throughout Malawi.

6. The Political Economy dimension

This crisis highlights a fundamental issue we’ve been grappling with for some time. In Malawi, the focus on maize isn’t just about food; it’s entangled with political motivations, and our public funding often reflects power dynamics rather than objective needs. Now, we’re facing an external shock that puts this system to the test.

The real question we need to ask is: what happens when a food system driven by political agendas relies on resources shaped by global politics? The answer is concerning; we become more vulnerable. Because our system isn’t diverse enough, it relies heavily on imported inputs, making it difficult to implement meaningful reforms. This isn’t just about agriculture; it’s about the lives of people who depend on this system for their daily sustenance.

7. Strategic implications for Malawi

This crisis presents an important opportunity for us to reflect seriously on our policies.

• Diversification is key. It’s crucial that we prioritise diversifying our agricultural practices. Relying solely on maize puts us at risk; we need to invest in livestock, irrigation, and the exploration of alternative crops.
• We should also work to reduce our dependence on chemical inputs by exploring organic and low-input farming systems. Additionally, exploring local alternatives for fertilisers can be really beneficial.
• It’s important to expand strategic reserves. It’s not just about having enough maize; we also need to ensure we have reserves of fertilisers and fuels to buffer against future shocks.

Lastly, we must encourage a shift in food security policy to focus less on the short-term politics surrounding maize and more on building long-term resilience in our systems. These changes are necessary for us to create a more sustainable and secure food future.

Conclusion: A System under stress

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz goes beyond just oil; it reveals significant vulnerabilities in our modern food system. Take Malawi, for example. The challenges it faces illustrate a fundamental reality: food security isn’t solely determined by local farming practices. It’s also about the larger systems in place that support those practices. When these systems depend on unstable external factors influenced by political dynamics, the risks to food security increase significantly.

Closing reflection

The situation is straightforward yet harsh: without oil, there’s no fertiliser, and without fertiliser, there’s no food. The pressing issue at hand is not just whether Malawi will experience the fallout from this crisis, but whether it will take this opportunity to reevaluate and reshape its food system. Will the country choose to innovate and strengthen its foundations, or will it continue relying on a system that increasingly risks being shaken by external forces?